Agriculture & CAP

The Future of the European Farming Model and the Decline in Farm Numbers

The decline in the number of farms and farmers is not simply a productivity story. It changes who manages land, sustains rural services, creates employment and provides environmental and social public goods. Policy therefore needs to examine which farm structures and adaptation pathways can preserve multifunctionality, resilience and territorial balance.

Key takeaways

  • Farm consolidation can improve scale efficiency, but rapid structural change can also weaken territorial diversity and local economic networks.
  • The European farming model is multifunctional: food production is only one of its economic, environmental and social roles.
  • Policy should recognise diverse farmer profiles and different viable adaptation pathways rather than assume one optimal farm model.
  • Generational renewal depends on access to land, capital, skills, services and a credible livelihood—not only age-based payments.

Why farm numbers are a policy issue

Fewer farms may reflect consolidation, technological change, retirement, low profitability or barriers to entry. The same headline trend can therefore produce different outcomes. In some places, land remains actively managed by viable holdings; in others, structural change is associated with depopulation, weaker services, land abandonment or reduced diversity of production.

Analysis should distinguish the number of legal holdings from the number of active farmers, labour inputs, land concentration, ownership, tenancy and the economic networks around farms. A territorial perspective asks not only how many farms remain, but what functions they perform and how change affects particular regions.

The European farming model is multifunctional

The European Parliament study on the future of the European farming model frames farming around multifunctionality and the provision of public goods. Farms produce food and biomass, but they also shape landscapes, biodiversity, water and soil management, cultural heritage, settlement patterns and local employment.

These functions are not delivered uniformly. Farm type, size, location, business model, labour structure and market access all matter. That makes a single average farm a weak basis for policy design.

Structural change has territorial consequences

Consolidation can support investment and competitiveness, yet it can also reduce the number of decision-makers, suppliers and farm households embedded in local economies. Smaller and medium-sized farms may support diverse value chains or landscape management, while larger holdings may have greater capital and innovation capacity. The relevant question is which mix is resilient and socially desirable in each territory.

The EU farming employment study adds a labour-market dimension: farm change affects employment quantity, job quality, skills needs, migration and the links between agricultural and non-agricultural work.

Policy should support diverse adaptation pathways

Viable responses include specialisation, diversification, cooperation, value-added processing, short supply chains, environmental services, digitalisation, part-time farming and collective investment. Policy should test which strategies are feasible for different farmer profiles rather than promote innovation as a generic label.

Support also needs sequencing. Advice without finance may not enable investment; start-up support without land access may not enable entry; environmental commitments without stable business conditions may not endure. CAP instruments should be assessed as a package alongside national taxation, land, social and regional policy.

Generational renewal is an ecosystem challenge

Young and new farmers need access to land, credit, infrastructure, knowledge, housing, childcare and functioning rural services. Succession within families remains important, but entry from outside farming families and new organisational models also deserve attention.

Evaluation should measure not only the number of supported young farmers, but survival, farm viability, land access, quality of work and the wider territorial conditions that influence whether people stay.

RegioGro evidence and related reading

The primary evidence link is RegioGro’s Future of the European Farming Model project page. It should be connected to the EU Farming Employment and Land Abandonment studies, as well as the Agriculture, CAP & Rural Development expertise page.

FAQ

No. Output can be maintained or increased through consolidation and productivity change, while territorial, labour and environmental effects may still be significant.

It recognises that farming produces food and market goods while also affecting landscapes, ecosystems, employment, culture and rural communities.

It is important but insufficient without land, finance, skills, services and viable long-term business prospects.

Related projects

Sources and further reading

Author/s

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